2030 - The Future of Healthcare in Europe

A white paper by The Economist sponsored by Janssen

The future of healthcare in Europe is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson. It looks at the financial challenges facing healthcare today and likely trends in healthcare development to 2030. To research this report, the Economist Intelligence Unit surveyed the literature and data available on Europe’s healthcare systems, and conducted 28 in-depth interviews with leading experts in the field. The data and expert insights were then analysed to define trends likely to impact the direction of healthcare in the next two decades. Finally, the Economist Intelligence Unit developed five scenarios, each a distillation of a school of thought on healthcare reform. The intention is to use these scenarios as a policy-neutral set of platforms upon which some degree of agreement can be reached about the future direction of healthcare.

Download the report from this page.

Learn more about the five scenarios for European Healthcare in 2030 and about the views from the leadership of Janssen:

 

Read more about the 5 scenarios in the report and rate each of them below.
Until today, other readers’ opinions about the desirability and likelihood of the scenarios are as follows:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Technology Triumphant Europe united Wellness first Spotlight on the vulnerable Laissez-faire
16%
9%
12%
36%
28%
Likely (20 votes)
Likely (11 votes)
Likely (15 votes)
Likely (46 votes)
Likely (35 votes)
36%
25%
29%
5%
5%
Desirable(55 votes)
Desirable(38 votes)
Desirable(44 votes)
Desirable(8 votes)
Desirable(8 votes)

Scenario 1: Technology Triumphant

Technology Triumphant

•    Technology marches forward on all fronts: from nanotechnology to biotechnology, from material sciences to genomics.
•    Healthcare is viewed as a major investment, not a cost.
•    20% of GDP is spent on healthcare, a large chunk of which goes toward technological improvement.
•    Stable political economies of Europe foster a climate for entrepreneurism.
•    Health systems are finally able to reform their business models to promote cost-effective innovation.

Result:
      •    Technology has triumphed to cure many chronic diseases
      •    The phenomenon is pan-European
      •    E-health has ensured that healthcare is well managed

Rate Scenario: likely (20) desirable (55)
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Scenario 2: Europe united

Europe United

European nations join forces to create a single pan-European healthcare system.

Result:

A new European Federal Healthcare System (EFHS) puts in place the following strategy for Europe:
             1.    Harmonising the financial model for raising healthcare funds
             2.    Systematic rationalisation of the healthcare resources
             3.    Harmonising healthcare standards across Europe
             4.    Training and re-training the healthcare workforce
             5.    Establishing an integrated e-health pathways Europe-wide

Rate Scenario: likely (11) desirable (38)
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Scenario 3: Wellness first

Wellness First

European nations shift their emphasis from healthcare to health: away from providing treatment and care to people once they fall ill, to promoting the well-being of nations.

Result:

European nations adopt nationwide public health programmes aimed at reducing the population’s burden of disease and sickness. These include:

    •    Legal reform (banning junk-food advertising; outlawing sun beds ...)
    •    Stepping up immunisation campaigns
    •    Improving maternal and child health
    •    Nutrition information programmes
    •    Supply of sports facilities and health habitats (road safety/housing)
    •    Public health education for professionals and laypeople
    •    E-health programmes provide citizens with the daily support they need to improve their personal lifestyles
    •    Promoting more awareness among the public that they have a duty to care for their own health

Rate Scenario: likely (15) desirable (44)
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Scenario 4: Spotlight on the vulnerable

Spotlight on the vulnerable

European nations focus their interest on vulnerable members of society.

Result:

European nations scrap their healthcare and social-care systems and replace them with new facilities designed to tackle the wide-ranging needs of vulnerable communities (older people, the poor, ethnic minorities, people with a mental health problem, and people with the lowest life expectancies).  Features of the system would be:

    •    Decentralised management of fund at local community level
    •    Co-ordination of a range of services that go beyond healthcare around local vulnerable communities
    •    Service to include home visits, programmes to tackle stigma, and advocacy programmes
    •    Support for self-help groups at local community level
    •    Nurse appointed as personal administrators to ensure that individual needs are met
    •    Large databank of personal data for benchmarking and planning
 

Rate Scenario: likely (46) desirable (8)
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Scenario 5: Laissez-faire

Laissez-faire

European nations privatise their entire healthcare systems.

Result:
    •    Main form of financing of Europe’s healthcare is private insurance.
    •    Insurers form large pan-European integrated networks of US-style managed care in Europe
    •    Insurers impose tough regimes to encourage the adoption of health lifestyles among their members
    •    The integrated health networks make cutbacks in health provision as a result of economies of scale
    •    Pharmaceutical companies make most of their revenue from performance enhancing drugs (e.g. for memory, anti-ageing)

Rate Scenario: likely (35) desirable (8)
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Future of Healthcare in Europe

Economist White Paper

Download the white paper (PDF, 1.5MB)